Why it’d be unwise to write off the new Government.

So it happened, we all expected it to happen and it happened. The Ruddslide is in; the victory is absolute and the carrion are fighting over the carcass of Bennelong. Kevin Rudd is the new Prime Minister-Elect of Australia.

Admittedly he hasn’t taken office yet, but the trains are still running the sky, as of yet, has not fallen, and Australia still seems to be carrying on much the same. (Of course, much like Justin if there are any major changes that force some form of unprecedented or unpredicted complete economic or social catastrophe, I will eat headwear of your nomination to absolve myself)

Now Howard’s been voted out and Costello is goneskies from the leadership of the Liberals. The Libs are in a tailspin after the defeat and the second bloody war is on to see who will take over that party as supreme leader. That’s material for another post, though.

What’s important, and I think what really needs to be taken into account is what is the true toll of Rudd being put into power. We know one important thing; Rudd is essentially a Social Conservative. We won’t have a liberalisation of Drugs policy, we won’t have Same-Sex Marriages or Civil unions (Though apparently they will try to fix the de-facto rules of taxation to apply to same-sex couples), we won’t see that drastic a modification in how we attempt to police the pacific. We won’t see the Australian Federal Police relegated to a purely counter-terrorism (read: Fuck all) role. The wheels are still well lubricated and spinning as much as they would in modern politics.

The thing that’s now in the forefront of everyone’s mind is what does Rudd’s victory mean for Australia. We’ve a burgeoning economy, low unemployment, a fiat currency, etc. Where do we go from here with Rudd?

Well, let’s look towards where we are projected to go. Firstly; the inflation/interest rates scare is a bunch of bollocks. Labor won’t do anything to the independence of the reserve bank and our current system as it would make us the laughingstock of the international community.

As little tact as the man has in regards to not treating the people of Australia like monkeys, I feel he would not deliberately enact legislation that would turn our country into a banana republic.

I feel that I’ve raised a very important point here. He would not do these things.

The current Labor Leader/PM Elect is in a situation that hasn’t been seen in politics for almost a Century.

He pays little or no attention to Factions and Factional disputes.

It’s well known how disastrous Factionalism and Factional shitfighting can be for a Government, and more particularly the people of that government. That kind of self-interested cronyism can tear Governments apart and force the passing of the most ludicrous and uneconomic legislation that could bring our country to a standstill.

But it’s all going to be different this time.

Why? Labor owes everything to Kevin. Absolutely everything. He took them from a completely unelectable position with a minority in both houses, a group of individuals who were as unelectable as they were utterly unbearable, whacked on a coat of paint, stole a policy here and there and here we are. New Labor.

A Crisp, fresh feel. A shiny new face.

Now, I know, I know, let’s see what happens when the shine comes off. But let’s get real. We can’t do anything about it for 3 or so years, so that’s pretty much something that falls by the wayside at this point.

Rudd’s government will be characterised not by sweeping reforms or exorbitant spending (The Education revolution at this stage seems to be more of a lone nutter waving a well-punctuated placard, rather than an actual revolution) but by a steady maintenance of the Status Quo.

They’re going to repeal workchoices, in the sense that they’ll stop AWA’s and bump up the allowable matters, but they won’t return control to the states.

They’re going to attempt to work with the states about Hospitals, but we all know they’ll eventually just wrest control over that, too.

For those of you hoping (Either positively or negatively) for a sweeping series of economic reforms that will turn Australia into the fetid wet dreams of the Socialist Alternative, think again. Not a chance. No matter how much the Left Faction of the Labor party will try to force this move, Rudd will stand his ground. As much as we joke about Gillard rolling Rudd, there’s not a chance of that either. Through his careful manipulation of the whole campaign process, Rudd has entrenched himself well and truly within the psyche of the average Australian as BEING the Labor party. Rudd is their hopes of winning any subsequent election in a full twerp package.

Furthermore, as I’ve outlined, there will be no real sweeping social change (Except maybe a substantial look into our Social Justice programs under the guise of Christian Socialism).

Again, the status Quo will be maintained.

What will come out of this term is that people may or may not come to the conclusion that Rudd’s promises were so perfectly balanced that any piecemeal implementation of them will be heralded as a full commitment to them, but really nothing more. What we shall see at the end of this is a steady commitment to the status quo.

By the end of his first term, the more cynical of us will not remember Kevin07 or New Leadership, as anything more than a rhetorical afterthought.

What Rudd will however leave as his indelible mark on Australian Society, Politics and Culture is an unfortunate reality for both sides of the political divide.

Theorising fully for a moment, we will look back with full hindsight at his term and be able to sardonically encapsulate it in a single idiom:

Rudd: “Don’t Rock the Boat”.